Chill Crow News
  • Home
  • News

    Trending Tags

      • Business
      • Politics
      • World
    • Entertainment

      Dwyane Wade’s Daughter & Michelle Obama Crew Up For Girls’s Historical past Month!

      Addison Rae Shares Cryptic Publish Amid Bryce Corridor Breakup Rumors – E! On-line

      It is Been a Decade Since Mary-Kate and Ashley Olsen Made a Film—But We’re Nonetheless Obsessed – E! On-line

      DJ Akademiks: Megan Thee Stallion Is Overrated!!

      Alec Baldwin Says He Deleted Twitter Resulting from “A–holes” Reacting to His Gillian Anderson Comment – E! On-line

      Adam Levine Reveals the Early 2000s Pop Rocker He is Already Launched to His 4-12 months-Outdated Daughter – E! On-line

      Disrupt and Dismantle Trailer: Disrupt and Dismantle Shines a Gentle on the Gullah Tradition

      Trending Tags

      • Tech

        Ghacks Offers: The Cloud Computing Architect Certification Bundle (97% off)

        Google Guarantees To not Substitute Third-Social gathering Trackers With One thing Worse

        Hong Kong fintech Kiwi Pay merges with Meal Temple to launch a brilliant app

        Australian fintech agency Airwallex acquires Hong Kong-based UniCard Resolution

        Earth Will Lose Its Oxygen in a Billion Years, Killing Most Dwelling Organisms

        Is the Home windows 10 app Microsoft Replace Well being Instruments official?

        Alibaba acquires Bangladeshi meals supply startup HungryNaki

        Trending Tags

        • Covid-19
        • About
        Thursday, March 4, 2021
        No Result
        View All Result
        • Home
        • News

          Trending Tags

            • Business
            • Politics
            • World
          • Entertainment

            Dwyane Wade’s Daughter & Michelle Obama Crew Up For Girls’s Historical past Month!

            Addison Rae Shares Cryptic Publish Amid Bryce Corridor Breakup Rumors – E! On-line

            It is Been a Decade Since Mary-Kate and Ashley Olsen Made a Film—But We’re Nonetheless Obsessed – E! On-line

            DJ Akademiks: Megan Thee Stallion Is Overrated!!

            Alec Baldwin Says He Deleted Twitter Resulting from “A–holes” Reacting to His Gillian Anderson Comment – E! On-line

            Adam Levine Reveals the Early 2000s Pop Rocker He is Already Launched to His 4-12 months-Outdated Daughter – E! On-line

            Disrupt and Dismantle Trailer: Disrupt and Dismantle Shines a Gentle on the Gullah Tradition

            Trending Tags

            • Tech

              Ghacks Offers: The Cloud Computing Architect Certification Bundle (97% off)

              Google Guarantees To not Substitute Third-Social gathering Trackers With One thing Worse

              Hong Kong fintech Kiwi Pay merges with Meal Temple to launch a brilliant app

              Australian fintech agency Airwallex acquires Hong Kong-based UniCard Resolution

              Earth Will Lose Its Oxygen in a Billion Years, Killing Most Dwelling Organisms

              Is the Home windows 10 app Microsoft Replace Well being Instruments official?

              Alibaba acquires Bangladeshi meals supply startup HungryNaki

              Trending Tags

              • Covid-19
              • About
              No Result
              View All Result
              Chill Crow News
              No Result
              View All Result
              Home Business

              Covid-19 in India: Success with herd immunity?

              admin by admin
              January 16, 2021
              in Business
              0
              0
              SHARES
              2
              VIEWS
              Share on FacebookShare on Twitter


              There is relief on the way—vaccines have been developed, are being distributed, and maybe the world returns to normal in mid-2021.

              By Surjit S Bhalla & Karan Bhasin

              It is almost a year since the virus first appeared outside of China. There have been several false alarms about the end of the virus; it is still ongoing, and in most parts of the world, the second leg of the virus (post-July 2020), has been worse than the first. There is relief on the way—vaccines have been developed, are being distributed, and maybe the world returns to normal in mid-2021.

              Economists (and policymakers) like natural experiments and plenty have been on offer. For the first time in world history, countries went into lockdown, as a deliberate strategy to counter the virus. The strategy emerged from the very place from where the virus first appeared—Wuhan, China. As many countries closed shop, the spread of the virus was arrested—but only temporarily, as it now appears.

              A study of the evolution of the virus suggests the following sets of conclusions. First, like Joan Robinson said in another context, for everything that can be said about the virus, the opposite is also true. Lockdowns work—and they don’t. If “worked” was the conventional conclusion (and there are many who still believe that lockdowns are “efficient” in controlling infections) then how does one explain the intensity and magnitude of the spread post the lockdown? What ex-ante theory of lockdowns expected/stated/believed that post the lockdown, there would be many cases, let alone that the cases would be far higher than during lockdowns?

              But, one can explain the answer of the faithful. The answer is simple and straightforward—the lockdowns were lifted too early, the infection had not died out, and hence, the explosion in cases (and deaths). There will be time to analyse this proposition in some detail—but for the moment, this defence is as close to circular reasoning as you can get. By this “logic”, if the virus did not re-emerge (as in New Zealand, or Taiwan, or Thailand), the timing of lockdown-lift was perfect. If it did re-emerge (as in most of Western Europe and the US (see graphic)), then “obviously” it is the case that the lockdown-lift came too early.

              The data does yield (ex-post) some non-nihilist conclusions. There is a common pattern to the success stories. Some of them employed a lockdown—but all the success stories involved a version of the 3-T policy: testing, tracing and treatment. The 3Ts policy is based on governments ramping up testing capabilities to identify those that are Covid-19 positive and isolating them to prevent the spread of the disease; next, tracing everyone who came in contact with those who tested positive; testing the contacts, and those tested positive, are then treated using different clinical protocols.

              That lockdown is not a necessary condition for victory is emphatically supported by the fact that more than 100 countries practised lockdowns at one-time or another, and less than a dozen succeeded. But, all countries that did succeed also practised ancient wisdom as embedded in the 3T policy. This fact deserves emphasis. The world has endured many viruses, many contagions. Check your history books—no region/country practised a lockdown prior to 2020. Should one believe, therefore, that all other viruses were less contagious? The US strategy of confronting the 1957-58 flu is discussed in Lockdowns and Closures vs Covid-19: Covid Wins (available at bit.ly/3qsa05V) and should be required reading for lockdown and other experts. The US had a version of the common flu much worse than any experienced before, or since. Yet the US authorities, under the able leadership of DA Henderson, faced the flu without lockdowns. What was the strategy employed? The same as that practised with all infectious diseases for centuries—attempt to isolate, and social distance from the patient. In the 1957-58 flu, some schools were closed, others remained open; ditto with workplaces, but emphatically no lockdown. The 3T is a modern version of the same.

              The accompanying graphic reports the data on Covid infections, and deaths, for several regions of the world (and selected countries). The data are presented for three dates—end-June, end-September, and January 11, 2021. The reader can peruse the comparisons at leisure, but we will discuss the India pattern in September and now. End September was the time when there was great worry; experts and the critic media were obsessed with India’s bad virus “performance”, and theories were developed as to how India could not do much right. No one (or very few) was predicting what actually transpired. End September, the Indian average (cases per million) were 4,712—almost identical to the world average (4,486) and the average of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). As of January 11, MENA and the world are close together (12,398 and 12,526), but India is one-third lower!

              The deaths per million evolution are like cases, but there is a noticeable difference—deaths are considerably lower in India—only 113 per million versus 271 per million for the world and 274 for MENA. Note the very low value of deaths in sub-Saharan Africa and East Asia. Two broad conclusions follow but also need a follow-up. First, poorer countries seem to have been affected less adversely than the richer, more advanced economies. One suggested explanation (possibility) is that poorer countries have had to live longer with diseases (and bad sanitation), and therefore, have developed some immunities which make them less prone to infections, ceteris paribus. Second, East Asia has a very low incidence of Covid, even after excluding China. One possible explanation is that this region has had greater experience with flu (eg, avian flu).

              One additional note about the continuing march towards herd immunity in India. In a paper presented at IRADE in December, we made a forecast of the “end” of Covid in India. We had said 12 million infections and the end sometime in April. Our forecast for India as of today—10.5 million infections and the end sometime in May-June. Based on the available state-level, some states in India have already achieved herd immunity while other states are catching up. States like Andhra Pradesh, Assam, Bihar, Jammu & Kashmir, Jharkhand and Goa have seen flattening; others like Karnataka, Maharashtra, are catching up.

              One final note—can we infer from these data that India might be approaching herd immunity, and doing so before vaccines are widely available? The many East Asian economies that have succeeded (eg, Viet Nam, Taiwan, Cambodia, Laos, China, etc) did so by controlling infections at an early stage, ie, infections were never large enough to warrant a relationship with herd immunity. Ditto the case with regions in sub-Saharan Africa. Only India stands out with a flattening curve among those that had earlier experienced explosions of infections. The extraordinary decline of Covid cases (and deaths) in India is an issue, like lockdowns, deserving of a more detailed study.

              Bhalla is Executive Director IMF representing India, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Bhutan and Bhasin is a New Delhi based policy researcher Views are personal

              Views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management

              Get live Stock Prices from BSE, NSE, US Market and latest NAV, portfolio of Mutual Funds, Check out latest IPO News, Best Performing IPOs, calculate your tax by Income Tax Calculator, know market’s Top Gainers, Top Losers & Best Equity Funds. Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter.

              Financial Express is now on Telegram. Click here to join our channel and stay updated with the latest Biz news and updates.



              Previous Post

              Coronavirus reside information: world dying toll passes milestone as Emirates cancels Australian flights

              Next Post

              China strips license of lawyer for Hong Kong activist

              Next Post
              China strips license of lawyer for Hong Kong activist

              China strips license of lawyer for Hong Kong activist

              Leave a Reply Cancel reply

              Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

              ET Offers: Save Up To $800 When You Pre-Order Samsung’s New Galaxy S21 5G Smartphone

              January 15, 2021

              Tokopedia faucets US-based New Relic for IT observability companies

              January 14, 2021
              Donald Trump’s cash faucet is getting turned off

              Donald Trump’s cash faucet is getting turned off

              January 13, 2021
              Vaccine rollouts lay naked the Center East’s deep inequalities

              Vaccine rollouts lay naked the Center East’s deep inequalities

              January 26, 2021

              Alleged Expl*c*t Video Of Disney Actress Skai Jackson Leaks On Twitter!!

              January 18, 2021

              8 Instances Tyler Perry Used His Platform to Give Again – E! On-line

              February 13, 2021

              Tyler Perry’s Sistas

              January 28, 2021

              Vying for progress: The main target must shift to sustaining progress

              March 4, 2021

              PLI scheme for IT merchandise has outlay of over Rs 7,000 cr, says govt

              February 24, 2021

              Wuhan marks a 12 months since Covid lockdown as others scramble

              January 23, 2021

              Nigerian schoolboys freed as forces seek for 300 kidnapped women

              February 28, 2021

              Navalny brother, aides below home arrest forward of Russia protests

              January 30, 2021

              Brazil’s well being company approves the usage of two vaccines

              January 18, 2021

              Russia Covid 19 Vaccine: Russia says its second Covid-19 vaccine is 100% efficient; Tass | World Information

              January 19, 2021

              After Covid, will digital studying be the brand new regular? | Faculties

              January 23, 2021

              Week in Assessment: Ignore the noise

              February 19, 2021
              Chill Crow News

              We bring you the best Premium WordPress Themes that perfect for news, magazine, personal blog, etc. Check our landing page for details.

              Categories

              • Business
              • Covid-19
              • Entertainment
              • Politics
              • Tech
              • World

              Recent News

              Uncertainty round main tax adjustments issues CIOT

              Furlough pay could also be primarily based on wages from two years in the past

              March 4, 2021
              Meghan Markle: Buckingham Palace to probe ‘regarding’ Meghan bullying claims

              Meghan Markle: Buckingham Palace to probe ‘regarding’ Meghan bullying claims

              March 4, 2021

              © 2020 Chill Crow News - All rights reserved by Chill Crow News.

              No Result
              View All Result
              • Home
              • Entertainment
                • Sports
              • News
                • Politics
                • World
              • Tech

              © 2020 Chill Crow News - All rights reserved by Chill Crow News.