The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Friday said the 2021 southwest monsoon starting in June is expected to be normal at 98 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA). A good monsoon will mean another year of bumper farm production and cascading positive impact for the economy battling Covid-19 infections. If the forecast comes true, this will be the third consecutive year of normal or above normal monsoon.
Earlier this week, private weather forecasting agency Skymet had made a similar prediction that the southwest Monsoon would be normal at 103 per cent of the LPA. Rainfall between 96 and 104 per cent of the LPA is considered normal.
Both IMD and Skymet predictions come with a model error of plus and minus 5 per cent.
The LPA of monsoon is pegged at 88 centimeters.
This is good news for all as the monsoon is expected to be normal this year,” M Rajeevan, secretary of Ministry of Earth Sciences, told reporters.
The initial forecast shows that barring east and north-eastern parts of the country including Odisha, Bihar, Jharkhand, North-Chhattisgarh, East UP and Assam, rainfall in all other regions is expected to be normal.
Experts pointed out that below-normal rains in east and north-east India is not always disadvantageous. That’s because the quantum of rains in those parts of the country is higher than other regions.
Cumulatively, there’s a 61 per cent chance of monsoon rains to be normal to above-normal and 39 per cent chance of them being below normal this year, according to IMD. In this, there is a 14 per cent chance of the rains being deficient that is below 90 per cent of the LPA.
The Indian Ocean Dipole, which is another weather system that has a direct bearing on the Indian monsoon, is also expected to be neutral this year.
This time, there’s very little chance of the dreaded El Nino during the monsoon season while La Nina is expected to be neutral.